Friday, October 30, 2009

BNP and YouGov

Last week, Nick Griffin was very pleased about the visitor-numbers on his website. I'm sure not all of them were well-wishers though. Here's something I noticed while having a little poke around:
If EVERY BNP supporter joined Yougov, we could put our support on a par with the Lib Dems and possibly higher! On top of this we could actually raise money for the Party via Yougov as you actually get paid for participating in surveys.
In short, if they don't tell YouGov that they are BNP members then the only way BNP 'over-representation' would get filtered out is by comparison with other data-sets. YouGov should be able to spot outliers.

I made a call to a friend in the polling industry and his view is that this could mean that YouGov are subsidising knuckledraggers and getting their data wrong - over-estimating BNP support (though they do, I understand, weight their conclusions on the understanding that some people don't even admit to pollsters that they vote for the BNP).

Of course the other issue is that - if the BNP have a demographic significantly different from the broad swathe of UK nationals - it is possible that YouGov's 'normalisation' would sideline BNP-members opinions.

Now, if it turned out that BNP members have a dramatically untypical British demographic, even amongst 'ethnic whites', then this would be quite telling - wouldn't it?


MatGB said...

Anthony's already said it won't work, and also that YouGov are stopping new sign up members from doing politics stuff until after the GE--nice of them to tell those of use waiting for one more survey to get our first cheque but...

Also, someone, think it was Sunny, did a demographic breakdown of BNP supporters, and they were disproportionately C2 & D males, can't link to that, not got it open.

Regardless, 250,000 people in the YouGov panel, and they sample for each survey based on demographics and other weightings before issuing the invites. Silly fules think they can treat it like an internet poll.

Al Widdershins said...

The trouble is ABC1C2DE isn't much use beyond very broad patterns. The thing I find interesting about the BNP's support is that in their peak year in Birmingham they polled over 10% in at least three (maybe all four) Sutton Coldfield wards and beat Labour in at least one.

"More research needed", I guess.

modsiw said...

All this manipulation against the BNP leads me to distrust opinion polls. All the mainstream media, all the mainstream politicians, and now the opinion pollsters are against them. They must be doing something right to induce such hatred and fear.

It seems that democracy only works if the public ard docile enough to do what they are told. Are the public really that stupid?