Sunday, July 27, 2008

Bookies wrong?

Just browsing, it looks like Obama's Presidency is being cast as a near-certainty now.

Am I the only one that thinks that McCain at 5/2 today is a very good price?

Bookmark that link. I forecast a steady shortening. Admittedly, I've been wrong before....

3 comments:

FlyingRodent said...

Obama's a black, Harvard educated intellectual who wants the Americans to leave Iraq (i.e. "lose") and institute communistic (i.e. not communist at all) healthcare programmes.

Anyone who thinks he's got an election tied up in the country of Karl Rove should give themselves a shake, I reckon. This campaign's going to get so dirty it'll have the blind and deaf dry-heaving by election day.

Paul Evans said...

Yep.

I was nosing through this the other day:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/True-Enough-Learning-Live-Society/dp/0470050101/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1217261796&sr=8-1

The idea that Republicans won't give someone whose name sounds like Osama a swiftboating to beat all swiftboatings is dreaming.

Good luck to him, but - like the Russians used to say, 'don't be surprised'...

(I'm trying to find the Russian proverb about not being surprised and Google ain't helping. An impromtptu post follows I think?)

bill said...

It's true in the Obama doesn't have it sewn up sense; so it's a good trading bet if his fight back manages to shorten the odds.

But I'd say a 40% chance of McCain winning - at this stage - looks to be over-rating his chances.

Since your previous commentators have pointed out Obama's negatives remember that McCain has his own. He's old and frail, prone to explosive fits of rage, calls his wife an "overmade-up cunt", keeps getting confused about international affairs (which is supposedly his strong suit), is possibly dying of cancer and wants to keep American troops dying in Iraq for the next hundred years. (Democrats can play dirty too, after all).

Oh and his party hates him and everyone hates his party because they've lost their jobs, their houses and can't fill up their gas tanks.

Then remember that he's got no money (in part because of the above) and Obama has loads to spend on adverts countering his negatives.

Again, it's not a done deal for Obama: I mean you could argue he should be further ahead at this stage given the above.

However, the longer Obama's clear lead remains, the more the Karl Roves of the modern GOP are going to think about spending their efforts and money saving Congress and Senate seats rather than McCain's White House bid.