Monday, April 17, 2006

Promotion update

Promotion celebrations at the City Ground need to be postponed no longer. For the last four Mondays, I've been projecting Forest's end-of-season placings. Each time, I've upbraided myself for over-optimism. Each time, the next results shows that - if anything - I've been pessimistic.

As there are four games left for everyone, I'm projecting the next four games based on the last four (taking the points average over the last five games and projecting forward would actually give Forest a better end-of-season placing). Things should be even clearer when this afternoons results are in (we have Yeovil at home).

So, here goes:

1st: Southend - 84pts
2nd: Forest - 76pts
3rd: Brentford - 76pts
4th: Colchester - 74pts
5th: Huddersfield - 74pts
6th: Barnsley - 71pts
7th: Swansea - 69pts
8th: Bristol - 67pts
9th: Oldham - 67pts

I've put Forest above Brentford on two grounds:

1. If it were a 'five-game' projection, we'd be points ahead
2. Brentford have a Goal Difference of +18. Forest have +15. On current form, 3 goals will be an easy gap to close.

BUT, what happens if we finish on the same points / Goal Difference?

Anyone know?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If two or more teams finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored at the end of the season and the championship, a promotion place, play-off place or relegation place is at stake they will then play off to decide who finishes higher.