Monday, April 10, 2006

Automatic Promotion Inevitability Watch - latest

For the last two weeks, I've been projecting Forest's end-of-season placings by extrapolating the form shown over the last five games forward. Up until now, I've been calling it 'promotion inevitability watch' on the understanding that - if we get into the play-off - we're bound to go up.

So far, this has been the desperate work of a perennial optimist. Privately, I've been happy to concede that even a play-off place is a long-shot. The first week I did it, I showed that 6th place was technically possible (but massively optimistic).

Last week I had the audacity to speculate that 5th or 6th place could be possible.

All that has changed now. Even pessimists are beginning to concede that - on current form - anything less than a playoff place will represent a cruel collapse in form. Though we're currently in 8th place - two points off the top six, our form suggests that the final table will look something like this:

1st: Southend: 87pts
2nd: Huddersfield: 75pts
--------------------------
3rd: Forest: 74pts
4th: Brentford: 74pts
5th: Colchester: 72-3pts
6th: Swansea: 69pts
-------------------------
7th: Barnsley: 66pts
8th: Oldham: 70pts

On the question of Goal Difference, Forest are already outstripping Huddersfield and Brentford only have a four-goal advantage - one that will surely be overturned on current form (which is why I've put us in third, not fourth place).

And I'd say that one point is a reasonable margin of error, wouldn't you? Given our fantastic recent form - and the dreadful run that all of the others are having, even second place must now be in our sights.

I think I'm going to be sick.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

hello

I really enjoy reading this blog. If i were you i would go to http://www.autosurfmonster.com and submit this blog and let thousands of others see it for FREE. well, i look forward to all the updates. Thanks again,.

Jessica

Lisa Rullsenberg said...

Ignore anonymous spammer. I'm making a real comment here:

Forest to go up?

I don't believe it!!! I go away for three weeks and the impossibility of possible promotion rises up and smacks me.

Could it be so after the disasters of the earlier period of the season?

Bated breath...

Paulie said...

Lisa,

Absence as a talisman? Worth a try.

You MUST NOT COME BACK BEFORE THE END OF THE SEASON.

STAY AWAY FROM NOTTINGHAM - DO YOU HEAR?

;-)